Turf Paradise & Philadelphia Racing Analysis 04 Jan 2022.
I will take a chance with EL SEGUNDO to go well in this allowance after a year off the track. Won well when last seen at Turfway Park and has scope for plenty of improvement. The only colt in the race could improve past these being lightly raced.
Betting against this once seems straight foolish. Ships in from New York after facing much better, first off the claim for top connections (Rice, ridden by Carmouche). Has solid figs at the route distance and is exposed, but in a good way because it’s evident how much of a solid horse this is for the area – the 215k price tag is indicative of that. This is the race he breaks his maiden. Rice wouldn’t be shipping him here unless she was confident.
These six runners in this maiden are looking hard to win with and all have claims but the pick of them looks to be ELLE VICTOIRE here. This 5-year-old mare should find this step up to 6.5f more suitable than 5f tried so far in five races as has been keeping on late suggesting this extra distance will suit. Went close two races ago and drops slightly in grade and switches now to Turf Paradise from Golden Gate. Stable do well when doing this. Gets the nap vote.
The last two races since switching to the leading rider have been pure good. Wouldn’t need much improvement to beat this field home and improvement could be very much on the cards now maiden is broken. Silvera has chosen to retain the ride and gets a solid position for this sod. Sire’s progeny are improvers and this shouldn’t be far away.
This is going to be a pace battle upfront and I imagine there will be quite a few tired legs at the 1/4 pole. DYF ran well 2 back on his first start on this dirt going a mile and that gives him a 100% strike rate on this sod. There is plenty of space in the race and this is the only closure of the field, happens to be drawn best too. Jockey has been in the money recently and gets a leg up. The trainer is also 2/5 when switching from turf to dirt and it just so happens this is a better dirt horse. I would e/w it, but it’s only 2 places.